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Covadonga vs Burgos — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Covadonga
Covadonga
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Burgos
Burgos
11/8/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Covadonga28%
×Draw28%
Burgos45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Covadonga
0.99
Burgos
1.34

Burgos creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Covadonga
1.23
Burgos
0.83

allows per match

Covadonga
1.85
Burgos
0.75

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par
Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw
55%
Covadonga or Burgos
72%
Draw or Burgos
72%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+
10%
Burgos wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals
63%
Covadonga 2+ goals
26%
Covadonga 3+ goals
8%
Burgos 1+ goals
74%
Burgos 2+ goals
39%
Burgos 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)
38%
Burgos (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.23 + Burgos defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Burgos attack 0.83 + Covadonga defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Covadonga scores more
28%
level
28%
Burgos scores more
45%

Burgos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Covadonga 1–2 Burgos

Burgos beat Covadonga 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.