Cova De Piedade 0–2 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

Cova De Piedade

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting CP B

10/1/2021

Liga 3 · Round 5Estádio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cova De Piedade35%

×Draw27%

Sporting CP B38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cova De PiedadeExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.28

Cova De Piedade

1.23

Sporting CP B

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 58 away

1.21

creates per match

1.14

1.43

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Cova De Piedade

1.21

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

Cova De Piedade

1.43

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cova De Piedade ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cova De Piedade or draw

62%

Cova De Piedade or Sporting CP B

73%

Draw or Sporting CP B

65%

Winning margin

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+

15%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals

71%

Cova De Piedade 2+ goals

35%

Cova De Piedade 3+ goals

13%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

72%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

37%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)

48%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cova De Piedade at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cova De Piedade attack 1.21 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cova De Piedade scores more

35%

level

27%

Sporting CP B scores more

38%

Sporting CP B at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff