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Cova De Piedade vs Farense — Segunda Liga 2018

Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Farense
Farense
10/13/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 8Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cova De Piedade34%
×Draw29%
Farense38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cova De Piedade
1.09
Farense
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 81 away

creates per match

Cova De Piedade
1.00
Farense
1.09

allows per match

Cova De Piedade
1.24
Farense
1.19

finishing

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cova De Piedade ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cova De Piedade or draw
62%
Cova De Piedade or Farense
71%
Draw or Farense
66%

Winning margin

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
13%
Farense wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
66%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
30%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
10%
Farense 1+ goals
69%
Farense 2+ goals
33%
Farense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
47%
Farense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cova De Piedade at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Farense away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + Farense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Farense attack 1.09 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cova De Piedade scores more
34%
level
29%
Farense scores more
38%

Farense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Cova De Piedade 0–2 Farense

Farense beat Cova De Piedade 2-0 in Segunda Liga on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira in Almada.