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Cova De Piedade vs Academica — Segunda Liga 2018

Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
CANC
15:00
Academica
Academica
5/10/2020Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 33Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cova De Piedade36%
×Draw28%
Academica36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cova De Piedade
1.15
Academica
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 63 away

creates per match

Cova De Piedade
1.00
Academica
1.03

allows per match

Cova De Piedade
1.24
Academica
1.30

finishing

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par
Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cova De Piedade ↓

Academica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cova De Piedade or draw
64%
Cova De Piedade or Academica
72%
Draw or Academica
64%

Winning margin

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
15%
Academica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
68%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
32%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
11%
Academica 1+ goals
68%
Academica 2+ goals
32%
Academica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
50%
Academica (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cova De Piedade at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Academica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.30 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + Academica defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Academica attack 1.03 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Cova De Piedade scores more
36%
level
28%
Academica scores more
36%

Cova De Piedade at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cova De Piedade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cova De Piedade face Academica (Segunda Liga)

Segunda Liga returns with Cova De Piedade hosting Academica. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cova De Piedade host Academica at Estádio Municipal José Martins Vieira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.