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Courtételle vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Courtételle
Courtételle
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Thun II
Thun II
3/16/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Centre Sportif

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Courtételle54%
×Draw22%
Thun II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Courtételle
1.95
Thun II
1.25

Courtételle creates 56% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Courtételle
1.86
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

Courtételle
1.16
Thun II
2.04

finishing

Courtételle+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Courtételle ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Courtételle or draw
76%
Courtételle or Thun II
78%
Draw or Thun II
46%

Winning margin

Courtételle wins by 2+
31%
Thun II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Courtételle 1+ goals
86%
Courtételle 2+ goals
58%
Courtételle 3+ goals
31%
Thun II 1+ goals
71%
Thun II 2+ goals
36%
Thun II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Courtételle (draw refunded)
69%
Thun II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Courtételle at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Courtételle attack 1.86 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.95

Thun II attack 1.33 + Courtételle defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Courtételle scores more
54%
level
22%
Thun II scores more
24%

Courtételle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Courtételle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Courtételle 3–1 Thun II

Courtételle beat Thun II 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Centre Sportif in Courtételle.