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Courtételle vs Solothurn — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Courtételle
Courtételle
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Solothurn
Solothurn
8/23/20251. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Centre Sportif

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Courtételle45%
×Draw23%
Solothurn32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Courtételle
1.79
Solothurn
1.48

Courtételle creates 21% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 86 away

creates per match

Courtételle
1.86
Solothurn
1.81

allows per match

Courtételle
1.16
Solothurn
1.73

finishing

Courtételle+0.00on par
Solothurn+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Courtételle ↓

Solothurn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Courtételle or draw
68%
Courtételle or Solothurn
77%
Draw or Solothurn
55%

Winning margin

Courtételle wins by 2+
24%
Solothurn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Courtételle 1+ goals
83%
Courtételle 2+ goals
53%
Courtételle 3+ goals
26%
Solothurn 1+ goals
77%
Solothurn 2+ goals
43%
Solothurn 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Courtételle (draw refunded)
58%
Solothurn (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Courtételle at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Solothurn away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.73 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Courtételle attack 1.86 + Solothurn defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Solothurn attack 1.81 + Courtételle defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Courtételle scores more
45%
level
23%
Solothurn scores more
32%

Courtételle at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Courtételle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Courtételle vs Solothurn

Courtételle and Solothurn drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Centre Sportif in Courtételle.