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Courtételle vs Muri — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Courtételle
Courtételle
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Muri
Muri
4/14/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Centre Sportif

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Courtételle65%
×Draw17%
Muri17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Courtételle
2.67
Muri
1.33

Courtételle creates 101% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Courtételle
1.86
Muri
1.50

allows per match

Courtételle
1.16
Muri
3.47

finishing

Courtételle+0.00on par
Muri+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Courtételle ↓

Muri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Courtételle or draw
83%
Courtételle or Muri
83%
Draw or Muri
35%

Winning margin

Courtételle wins by 2+
44%
Muri wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Courtételle 1+ goals
93%
Courtételle 2+ goals
74%
Courtételle 3+ goals
49%
Muri 1+ goals
74%
Muri 2+ goals
38%
Muri 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Courtételle (draw refunded)
79%
Muri (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Courtételle at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Muri away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Courtételle attack 1.86 + Muri defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.67

Muri attack 1.50 + Courtételle defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Courtételle scores more
65%
level
17%
Muri scores more
17%

Courtételle at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Courtételle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Courtételle vs Muri

Courtételle beat Muri 7-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Centre Sportif in Courtételle.