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Courtételle vs Langenthal — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Courtételle
Courtételle
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Langenthal
Langenthal
9/28/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Centre Sportif

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Courtételle49%
×Draw23%
Langenthal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Courtételle
1.83
Langenthal
1.34

Courtételle creates 37% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 86 away

creates per match

Courtételle
1.86
Langenthal
1.53

allows per match

Courtételle
1.16
Langenthal
1.79

finishing

Courtételle+0.00on par
Langenthal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Courtételle ↓

Langenthal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Courtételle or draw
72%
Courtételle or Langenthal
77%
Draw or Langenthal
51%

Winning margin

Courtételle wins by 2+
27%
Langenthal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Courtételle 1+ goals
84%
Courtételle 2+ goals
54%
Courtételle 3+ goals
28%
Langenthal 1+ goals
74%
Langenthal 2+ goals
39%
Langenthal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Courtételle (draw refunded)
63%
Langenthal (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Courtételle at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Langenthal away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Courtételle attack 1.86 + Langenthal defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Langenthal attack 1.53 + Courtételle defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Courtételle scores more
49%
level
23%
Langenthal scores more
28%

Courtételle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Courtételle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Courtételle vs Langenthal

Langenthal beat Courtételle 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Centre Sportif in Courtételle.