Coundon Court W 0–11 Burnley W: Result & Stats

Coundon Court W

0 – 11

HT: 0 – 5

Burnley W

12/10/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Phillips 66 Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Coundon Court W9%

×Draw11%

Burnley W80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coundon Court WExpected goals in this matchBurnley W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

4.23

Coundon Court W

1.53

Burnley W

4.23

Burnley W creates 176% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

4.80

3.67

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Coundon Court W

1.67

Burnley W

4.80

allows per match

Coundon Court W

3.67

Burnley W

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coundon Court W+0.00on par

Burnley W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coundon Court W ↓

Burnley W →

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–35%

0–45%

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

91%9%3.5

80%20%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Coundon Court W or draw

20%

Coundon Court W or Burnley W

89%

Draw or Burnley W

91%

Winning margin

Coundon Court W wins by 2+

Burnley W wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Coundon Court W 1+ goals

78%

Coundon Court W 2+ goals

45%

Coundon Court W 3+ goals

20%

Burnley W 1+ goals

98%

Burnley W 2+ goals

91%

Burnley W 3+ goals

76%

Draw no bet

Coundon Court W (draw refunded)

11%

Burnley W (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Coundon Court W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Burnley W away — creates 4.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Coundon Court W attack 1.67 + Burnley W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Burnley W attack 4.80 + Coundon Court W defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 4.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Coundon Court W scores more

level

11%

Burnley W scores more

80%

Burnley W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Burnley W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff