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Cotonsport vs Young Sport Academy — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
1 – 1
Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
4/8/2024Elite OneElite One · Championship Round - 2Stade Mbappe Leppe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Cotonsport56%
×Draw25%
Young Sport Academy19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.56
Young Sport Academy
0.79

Cotonsport creates 97% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 79 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.80
Young Sport Academy
0.94

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.65
Young Sport Academy
1.32

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Young Sport Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
81%
Cotonsport or Young Sport Academy
75%
Draw or Young Sport Academy
44%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
29%
Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
79%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
46%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
21%
Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
55%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
19%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
75%
Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cotonsport scores more
56%
level
25%
Young Sport Academy scores more
19%

Cotonsport at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cotonsport vs Young Sport Academy

Cotonsport and Young Sport Academy drew 1-1 in Elite One on April 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mbappe Leppe in Douala.