Cotonsport 3–0 Victoria United: Result & Stats

Cotonsport

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Victoria United

1/29/2025

Elite One · Round 10Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Cotonsport57%

×Draw24%

Victoria United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CotonsportExpected goals in this matchVictoria United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.93

Cotonsport

1.75

Victoria United

0.93

Cotonsport creates 88% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 40 away

1.80

creates per match

1.20

0.65

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Cotonsport

1.80

Victoria United

1.20

allows per match

Cotonsport

0.65

Victoria United

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Victoria United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw

80%

Cotonsport or Victoria United

76%

Draw or Victoria United

43%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+

32%

Victoria United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals

83%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

52%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

25%

Victoria United 1+ goals

61%

Victoria United 2+ goals

24%

Victoria United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

74%

Victoria United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Victoria United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.75

Victoria United attack 1.20 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cotonsport scores more

57%

level

24%

Victoria United scores more

20%

Cotonsport at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff