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Cotonsport vs Unisport Bafang — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
4 – 0
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
7/11/2018Elite OneElite One · Round 30Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport (Garoua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cotonsport57%
×Draw24%
Unisport Bafang19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.73
Unisport Bafang
0.88

Cotonsport creates 97% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.80
Unisport Bafang
1.10

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.65
Unisport Bafang
1.67

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
81%
Cotonsport or Unisport Bafang
76%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
43%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
32%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
82%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
52%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
25%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
59%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
22%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
75%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Unisport Bafang attack 1.10 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cotonsport scores more
57%
level
24%
Unisport Bafang scores more
19%

Cotonsport at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Cotonsport 4–0 Unisport Bafang

Cotonsport beat Unisport Bafang 4-0 in Elite One on July 11, 2018.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport (Garoua).