Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cotonsport vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
Unknown 90', 55', 34', 30'
Unknown 27'
10/22/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cotonsport49%
×Draw28%
UMS de Loum22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.33
UMS de Loum
0.79

Cotonsport creates 68% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.78
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.66
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
78%
Cotonsport or UMS de Loum
72%
Draw or UMS de Loum
51%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
23%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
74%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
38%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
15%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
55%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
19%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
69%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.66 · 91 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.78 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Cotonsport defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cotonsport scores more
49%
level
28%
UMS de Loum scores more
22%

Cotonsport at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
30'
34'
55'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cotonsport vs UMS de Loum

Cotonsport beat UMS de Loum 4-1 in Elite One on October 22, 2023.

Goals: ? (27', 30', 34', 55', 90').

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia in Garoua.