Cotonsport 2–0 Tonnerre: Result & Stats | Elite One

Cotonsport

FT

2 – 0

Tonnerre

7/18/2021

Elite One · Round 13Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cotonsport58%

×Draw26%

Tonnerre16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CotonsportExpected goals in this matchTonnerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.65

Cotonsport

1.50

Tonnerre

0.65

Cotonsport creates 131% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 36 away

1.80

creates per match

0.64

0.65

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Cotonsport

1.80

Tonnerre

0.64

allows per match

Cotonsport

0.65

Tonnerre

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Tonnerre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw

84%

Cotonsport or Tonnerre

74%

Draw or Tonnerre

42%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+

30%

Tonnerre wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals

78%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

44%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

19%

Tonnerre 1+ goals

48%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

14%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

78%

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cotonsport scores more

58%

level

26%

Tonnerre scores more

16%

Cotonsport at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff