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Cotonsport vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
6 – 0
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
2/14/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 3Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport (Garoua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cotonsport60%
×Draw24%
Tonnerre17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.69
Tonnerre
0.76

Cotonsport creates 122% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.80
Tonnerre
0.86

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.65
Tonnerre
1.57

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
83%
Cotonsport or Tonnerre
76%
Draw or Tonnerre
40%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
33%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
82%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
50%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
24%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
53%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
18%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
78%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Tonnerre defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Tonnerre attack 0.86 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cotonsport scores more
60%
level
24%
Tonnerre scores more
17%

Cotonsport at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Cotonsport 6–0 Tonnerre

Cotonsport beat Tonnerre 6-0 in Elite One on February 14, 2019.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Coton Sport (Garoua).