Cotonsport 3–1 Fovu Club: Result & Stats

Cotonsport

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fovu Club

C. Yougouda 52'

J. Chamdjou 35'

A. Naphtali 24'

A. E. Cantona 66'

2/26/2024

Elite One · Round 16Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cotonsport52%

×Draw26%

Fovu Club22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CotonsportExpected goals in this matchFovu Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.87

Cotonsport

1.50

Fovu Club

0.87

Cotonsport creates 72% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

1.78

creates per match

1.08

0.66

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Cotonsport

1.78

Fovu Club

1.08

allows per match

Cotonsport

0.66

Fovu Club

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Fovu Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw

78%

Cotonsport or Fovu Club

74%

Draw or Fovu Club

48%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+

27%

Fovu Club wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals

78%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

44%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

19%

Fovu Club 1+ goals

58%

Fovu Club 2+ goals

22%

Fovu Club 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

70%

Fovu Club (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.66 · 91 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.78 + Fovu Club defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fovu Club attack 1.08 + Cotonsport defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cotonsport scores more

52%

level

26%

Fovu Club scores more

22%

Cotonsport at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. Naphtali

35'

J. Chamdjou

52'

C. Yougouda

66'

A. E. Cantona

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff