Cotonsport 2–0 APEJES Academy: Result & Stats

Cotonsport

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

APEJES Academy

B. Bieleu 71'

I. Traore 28'

3/2/2024

Elite One · Round 17Stade Omnisport Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Cotonsport53%

×Draw26%

APEJES Academy21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CotonsportExpected goals in this matchAPEJES Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.83

Cotonsport

1.51

APEJES Academy

0.83

Cotonsport creates 82% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 67 away

1.78

creates per match

1.01

0.66

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Cotonsport

1.78

APEJES Academy

1.01

allows per match

Cotonsport

0.66

APEJES Academy

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par

APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

APEJES Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw

79%

Cotonsport or APEJES Academy

74%

Draw or APEJES Academy

47%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+

27%

APEJES Academy wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals

78%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

44%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

19%

APEJES Academy 1+ goals

56%

APEJES Academy 2+ goals

20%

APEJES Academy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

72%

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.66 · 91 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.78 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.51

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Cotonsport defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cotonsport scores more

53%

level

26%

APEJES Academy scores more

21%

Cotonsport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

I. Traore

71'

B. Bieleu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff