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Cotonsport vs Aigle Royal de Moungo — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
O. Fadyl 66'
M. Doujouna 5'
H. Ndedi Kingue 39'
12/29/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade Omnisports Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cotonsport56%
×Draw25%
Aigle Royal de Moungo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.60
Aigle Royal de Moungo
0.82

Cotonsport creates 95% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 27 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.80
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.00

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.65
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.41

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Aigle Royal de Moungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
81%
Cotonsport or Aigle Royal de Moungo
75%
Draw or Aigle Royal de Moungo
44%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
30%
Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
80%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
47%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
22%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
56%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
20%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
74%
Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.00 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cotonsport scores more
56%
level
25%
Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
19%

Cotonsport at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Doujouna
39'
H. Ndedi Kingue
66'
O. Fadyl
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Cotonsport 2–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo

Cotonsport beat Aigle Royal de Moungo 2-1 in Elite One on December 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Doujouna (5'), H. Ndedi Kingue (39'), O. Fadyl (66').

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Roumdé Adjia in Garoua.