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Cotonsport vs Aigle Royal — Elite One 2019

Cotonsport
Cotonsport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
C. Yougouda 20'
E. Rodrigao 5'
N. Blaise 45'
3/14/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 9Stade Roumde Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cotonsport57%
×Draw25%
Aigle Royal18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cotonsport
1.60
Aigle Royal
0.77

Cotonsport creates 108% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cotonsport
1.78
Aigle Royal
0.87

allows per match

Cotonsport
0.66
Aigle Royal
1.42

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw
82%
Cotonsport or Aigle Royal
75%
Draw or Aigle Royal
43%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+
31%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals
80%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
47%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
22%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
54%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
18%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)
76%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.66 · 91 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.78 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.60

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + Cotonsport defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cotonsport scores more
57%
level
25%
Aigle Royal scores more
18%

Cotonsport at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
E. Rodrigao
20'
C. Yougouda
45'
N. Blaise

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cotonsport vs Aigle Royal

Cotonsport beat Aigle Royal 2-1 in Elite One on March 14, 2026.

Goals: E. Rodrigao (5'), C. Yougouda (20'), N. Blaise (45').

The match was played at Stade Roumde Adjia in Garoua.