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Coton Sport Ouidah vs JSO — Championnat National 2019

Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
FT
1 – 1
JSO
JSO
12/28/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 14Stade Muncipal de Ouidah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Coton Sport Ouidah58%
×Draw27%
JSO14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coton Sport Ouidah
1.40
JSO
0.54

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 159% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 35 away

creates per match

Coton Sport Ouidah
1.40
JSO
0.54

allows per match

Coton Sport Ouidah
0.54
JSO
1.40

finishing

Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par
JSO+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coton Sport Ouidah ↓

JSO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Coton Sport Ouidah or draw
86%
Coton Sport Ouidah or JSO
73%
Draw or JSO
42%

Winning margin

Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
29%
JSO wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
75%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
41%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
17%
JSO 1+ goals
42%
JSO 2+ goals
10%
JSO 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
80%
JSO (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coton Sport Ouidah at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.54 · 92 matches

JSO away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.40 + JSO defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

JSO attack 0.54 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
58%
level
27%
JSO scores more
14%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coton Sport Ouidah vs JSO

Coton Sport Ouidah and JSO drew 1-1 in Championnat National on December 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Muncipal de Ouidah in Ouidah.