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Coton Sport Ouidah vs Espoir Savalou — Championnat National 2019

Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Espoir Savalou
Espoir Savalou
12/6/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Coton Sport Ouidah48%
×Draw30%
Espoir Savalou22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coton Sport Ouidah
1.21
Espoir Savalou
0.72

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 68% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 101 away

creates per match

Coton Sport Ouidah
1.40
Espoir Savalou
0.89

allows per match

Coton Sport Ouidah
0.54
Espoir Savalou
1.03

finishing

Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par
Espoir Savalou+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coton Sport Ouidah ↓

Espoir Savalou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Coton Sport Ouidah or draw
78%
Coton Sport Ouidah or Espoir Savalou
70%
Draw or Espoir Savalou
52%

Winning margin

Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
21%
Espoir Savalou wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
70%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
34%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
12%
Espoir Savalou 1+ goals
51%
Espoir Savalou 2+ goals
16%
Espoir Savalou 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
68%
Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coton Sport Ouidah at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.54 · 92 matches

Espoir Savalou away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.40 + Espoir Savalou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Espoir Savalou attack 0.89 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
48%
level
30%
Espoir Savalou scores more
22%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Coton Sport Ouidah 1–1 Espoir Savalou

Coton Sport Ouidah and Espoir Savalou drew 1-1 in Championnat National on December 6, 2025.