Coton Sport Ouidah 2–1 Cavaliers: Result & Stats

Coton Sport Ouidah

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cavaliers

10/5/2025

Championnat National · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Coton Sport Ouidah50%

×Draw30%

Cavaliers21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coton Sport OuidahExpected goals in this matchCavaliers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.70

Coton Sport Ouidah

1.26

Cavaliers

0.70

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 80% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 107 away

1.40

creates per match

0.86

0.54

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Coton Sport Ouidah

1.40

Cavaliers

0.86

allows per match

Coton Sport Ouidah

0.54

Cavaliers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Cavaliers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coton Sport Ouidah ↓

Cavaliers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Coton Sport Ouidah or draw

79%

Coton Sport Ouidah or Cavaliers

70%

Draw or Cavaliers

50%

Winning margin

Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+

23%

Cavaliers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals

72%

Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals

36%

Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals

13%

Cavaliers 1+ goals

50%

Cavaliers 2+ goals

16%

Cavaliers 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)

71%

Cavaliers (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coton Sport Ouidah at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.54 · 92 matches

Cavaliers away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.13 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.40 + Cavaliers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cavaliers attack 0.86 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coton Sport Ouidah scores more

50%

level

30%

Cavaliers scores more

21%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff