Coton Sport Ouidah 1–0 ASPAC: Result & Stats

Coton Sport Ouidah

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ASPAC

12/23/2023

Championnat National · Round 14Stade Muncipal de Ouidah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Coton Sport Ouidah46%

×Draw31%

ASPAC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coton Sport OuidahExpected goals in this matchASPAC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.70

Coton Sport Ouidah

1.13

ASPAC

0.70

Coton Sport Ouidah creates 61% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 111 away

1.40

creates per match

0.86

0.54

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Coton Sport Ouidah

1.40

ASPAC

0.86

allows per match

Coton Sport Ouidah

0.54

ASPAC

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

ASPAC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coton Sport Ouidah ↓

ASPAC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Coton Sport Ouidah or draw

77%

Coton Sport Ouidah or ASPAC

69%

Draw or ASPAC

54%

Winning margin

Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+

20%

ASPAC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals

68%

Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals

31%

Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals

11%

ASPAC 1+ goals

50%

ASPAC 2+ goals

16%

ASPAC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)

67%

ASPAC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coton Sport Ouidah at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.54 · 92 matches

ASPAC away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.40 + ASPAC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

ASPAC attack 0.86 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coton Sport Ouidah scores more

46%

level

31%

ASPAC scores more

23%

Coton Sport Ouidah at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coton Sport Ouidah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff