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Côte d'Or vs Stade d'Abidjan — CAF Champions League 2019

Côte d'Or
Côte d'Or
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Stade d'Abidjan
Stade d'Abidjan
S. Nze 45'
D. Sangare 35'
9/16/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundNational Sports Complex Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Côte d'Or35%
×Draw23%
Stade d'Abidjan42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Côte d'Or
1.58
Stade d'Abidjan
1.75

Stade d'Abidjan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Côte d'Or
0.33
Stade d'Abidjan
0.83

allows per match

Côte d'Or
2.67
Stade d'Abidjan
2.83

finishing

Côte d'Or+0.00on par
Stade d'Abidjan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Côte d'Or ↓

Stade d'Abidjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Côte d'Or or draw
58%
Côte d'Or or Stade d'Abidjan
77%
Draw or Stade d'Abidjan
65%

Winning margin

Côte d'Or wins by 2+
17%
Stade d'Abidjan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Côte d'Or 1+ goals
79%
Côte d'Or 2+ goals
47%
Côte d'Or 3+ goals
21%
Stade d'Abidjan 1+ goals
83%
Stade d'Abidjan 2+ goals
52%
Stade d'Abidjan 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Côte d'Or (draw refunded)
45%
Stade d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Côte d'Or at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Stade d'Abidjan away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Côte d'Or attack 0.33 + Stade d'Abidjan defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stade d'Abidjan attack 0.83 + Côte d'Or defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Côte d'Or scores more
35%
level
23%
Stade d'Abidjan scores more
42%

Stade d'Abidjan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stade d'Abidjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
D. Sangare
45'
S. Nze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Côte d'Or 0–2 Stade d'Abidjan

Stade d'Abidjan beat Côte d'Or 2-0 in CAF Champions League on September 16, 2025.

Goals: D. Sangare (35'), S. Nze (45').

The match was played at National Sports Complex Pitch 1 in Saint Pierre.