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Côte d'Ivoire U20 vs Saudi Arabia U23 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022

Côte d'Ivoire U20
Côte d'Ivoire U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Saudi Arabia U23
Saudi Arabia U23
6/11/2024Tournoi Maurice RevelloTournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 5Stade Parsemain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Côte d'Ivoire U2061%
×Draw20%
Saudi Arabia U2319%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Côte d'Ivoire U20
2.17
Saudi Arabia U23
1.13

Côte d'Ivoire U20 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Côte d'Ivoire U20
2.33
Saudi Arabia U23
1.25

allows per match

Côte d'Ivoire U20
1.00
Saudi Arabia U23
2.00

finishing

Côte d'Ivoire U20+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia U23+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Côte d'Ivoire U20 ↓

Saudi Arabia U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Côte d'Ivoire U20 or draw
81%
Côte d'Ivoire U20 or Saudi Arabia U23
80%
Draw or Saudi Arabia U23
39%

Winning margin

Côte d'Ivoire U20 wins by 2+
38%
Saudi Arabia U23 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Côte d'Ivoire U20 1+ goals
89%
Côte d'Ivoire U20 2+ goals
64%
Côte d'Ivoire U20 3+ goals
36%
Saudi Arabia U23 1+ goals
68%
Saudi Arabia U23 2+ goals
31%
Saudi Arabia U23 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Côte d'Ivoire U20 (draw refunded)
76%
Saudi Arabia U23 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Côte d'Ivoire U20 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Saudi Arabia U23 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Côte d'Ivoire U20 attack 2.33 + Saudi Arabia U23 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Saudi Arabia U23 attack 1.25 + Côte d'Ivoire U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Côte d'Ivoire U20 scores more
61%
level
20%
Saudi Arabia U23 scores more
19%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Côte d'Ivoire U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tournoi Maurice Revello: Côte d'Ivoire U20 0–1 Saudi Arabia U23

Saudi Arabia U23 beat Côte d'Ivoire U20 1-0 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Parsemain in Fos-sur-Mer.