Côte d'Ivoire U20 4–1 Mexico U23: Result & Stats

Côte d'Ivoire U20

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mexico U23

6/9/2024

Tournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 4Stade de Lattre de Tassigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Côte d'Ivoire U2069%

×Draw17%

Mexico U2315%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Côte d'Ivoire U20Expected goals in this matchMexico U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.17

Côte d'Ivoire U20

2.67

Mexico U23

1.17

Côte d'Ivoire U20 creates 128% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Côte d'Ivoire U20

2.33

Mexico U23

1.33

allows per match

Côte d'Ivoire U20

1.00

Mexico U23

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Côte d'Ivoire U20+0.00on par

Mexico U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Côte d'Ivoire U20 ↓

Mexico U23 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Côte d'Ivoire U20 or draw

85%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 or Mexico U23

83%

Draw or Mexico U23

31%

Winning margin

Côte d'Ivoire U20 wins by 2+

47%

Mexico U23 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Côte d'Ivoire U20 1+ goals

93%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 2+ goals

74%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 3+ goals

49%

Mexico U23 1+ goals

69%

Mexico U23 2+ goals

33%

Mexico U23 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Côte d'Ivoire U20 (draw refunded)

82%

Mexico U23 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Côte d'Ivoire U20 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Mexico U23 away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Côte d'Ivoire U20 attack 2.33 + Mexico U23 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Mexico U23 attack 1.33 + Côte d'Ivoire U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Côte d'Ivoire U20 scores more

69%

level

17%

Mexico U23 scores more

15%

Côte d'Ivoire U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Côte d'Ivoire U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff