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Costa Rica W vs South Africa W — Friendlies Women 2026

Costa Rica W
Costa Rica W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
South Africa W
South Africa W
H. Magaia 55'
T. Kgatlana 32'
7/15/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 1Ngā Puna Wai Sports Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Costa Rica W50%
×Draw22%
South Africa W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Costa Rica W
1.94
South Africa W
1.39

Costa Rica W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

creates per match

Costa Rica W
1.58
South Africa W
1.00

allows per match

Costa Rica W
1.77
South Africa W
2.29

finishing

Costa Rica W+0.00on par
South Africa W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa Rica W ↓

South Africa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Costa Rica W or draw
72%
Costa Rica W or South Africa W
78%
Draw or South Africa W
50%

Winning margin

Costa Rica W wins by 2+
29%
South Africa W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Costa Rica W 1+ goals
86%
Costa Rica W 2+ goals
58%
Costa Rica W 3+ goals
30%
South Africa W 1+ goals
75%
South Africa W 2+ goals
40%
South Africa W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Costa Rica W (draw refunded)
65%
South Africa W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa Rica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

South Africa W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa Rica W attack 1.58 + South Africa W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.94

South Africa W attack 1.00 + Costa Rica W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Costa Rica W scores more
50%
level
22%
South Africa W scores more
28%

Costa Rica W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Costa Rica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
T. Kgatlana
55'
H. Magaia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Costa Rica W 0–2 South Africa W

South Africa W beat Costa Rica W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on July 15, 2023.

Goals: T. Kgatlana (32'), H. Magaia (55').

The match was played at Ngā Puna Wai Sports Hub in Christchurch.