Costa Rica W 5–2 Nicaragua W: Result & Stats

Costa Rica W

5 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nicaragua W

G. Guillén 90+2'

M. Salas 69'

L. Rodriguez 53', 46'

M. Montero 48'

Y. del Socorro 65'

J. Berríos 44'

12/1/2021

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Costa Rica W53%

×Draw21%

Nicaragua W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Costa Rica WExpected goals in this matchNicaragua W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.46

Costa Rica W

2.15

Nicaragua W

1.46

Costa Rica W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

1.58

creates per match

1.14

1.77

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Costa Rica W

1.58

Nicaragua W

1.14

allows per match

Costa Rica W

1.77

Nicaragua W

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Costa Rica W+0.00on par

Nicaragua W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa Rica W ↓

Nicaragua W →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Costa Rica W or draw

74%

Costa Rica W or Nicaragua W

79%

Draw or Nicaragua W

47%

Winning margin

Costa Rica W wins by 2+

32%

Nicaragua W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Costa Rica W 1+ goals

88%

Costa Rica W 2+ goals

63%

Costa Rica W 3+ goals

36%

Nicaragua W 1+ goals

77%

Nicaragua W 2+ goals

43%

Nicaragua W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Costa Rica W (draw refunded)

67%

Nicaragua W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Costa Rica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Nicaragua W away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Costa Rica W attack 1.58 + Nicaragua W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.15

Nicaragua W attack 1.14 + Costa Rica W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Costa Rica W scores more

53%

level

21%

Nicaragua W scores more

26%

Costa Rica W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Costa Rica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

J. Berríos

46'

L. Rodriguez

48'

M. Montero

53'

L. Rodriguez↳ M. Montero

58'

C. Sandí← L. Rodriguez

58'

M. Salas← M. Montero

64'

H. Martínez← J. Berríos

65'

Y. del Socorro↳ J. Aguirre

69'

M. Salas↳ K. Alvarado

70'

R. Hernández← B. García

70'

N. Orellana← S. Flores

77'

V. Chinchilla← S. Cruz

85'

M. Coto← P. Chinchilla

87'

M. Benavidez

90'

S. Villareyna← Y. del Socorro

90'

D. Ortega← A. Cruz

90+2'

G. Guillén↳ C. Sandí

Costa

Nicaragua

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Socorro

▼

García

Aguirre

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽A

▼

Montero

Manager: A. Valverde

58'▲C. Sandí←▼L. Rodriguez

58'▲M. Salas←▼M. Montero

77'▲V. Chinchilla←▼S. Cruz

85'▲M. Coto←▼P. Chinchilla

Costa Rica W substitutes

22Sandí17Salas7Chinchilla3Coto18Tapia9Venegas21Campo25Lobo26Rojas6Sánchez23Bermúdez15Granados

Manager: E. Dixon

64'▲H. Martínez←▼J. Berríos

70'▲R. Hernández←▼B. García

70'▲N. Orellana←▼S. Flores

90'▲S. Villareyna←▼Y. del Socorro

90'▲D. Ortega←▼A. Cruz

Nicaragua W substitutes

19Martínez16Hernández18Orellana9Villareyna3Ortega15Silva12Gutiérrez20Márquez