Costa Rica W 2–4 Haiti W: Result & Stats

Costa Rica W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Haiti W

C. Venegas 63'

H. Corrales 59'

M. Dumornay 69', 46'

N. Mondésir 38'

R. Borgella 7'

6/28/2022

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 1Complejo Deportivo FEDEFUTBOL Plycem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Costa Rica W43%

×Draw23%

Haiti W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Costa Rica WExpected goals in this matchHaiti W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.60

Costa Rica W

1.82

Haiti W

1.60

Costa Rica W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

1.58

creates per match

1.44

1.77

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Costa Rica W

1.58

Haiti W

1.44

allows per match

Costa Rica W

1.77

Haiti W

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Costa Rica W+0.00on par

Haiti W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa Rica W ↓

Haiti W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Costa Rica W or draw

66%

Costa Rica W or Haiti W

77%

Draw or Haiti W

57%

Winning margin

Costa Rica W wins by 2+

23%

Haiti W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Costa Rica W 1+ goals

84%

Costa Rica W 2+ goals

54%

Costa Rica W 3+ goals

27%

Haiti W 1+ goals

80%

Haiti W 2+ goals

47%

Haiti W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Costa Rica W (draw refunded)

56%

Haiti W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa Rica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Haiti W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa Rica W attack 1.58 + Haiti W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.82

Haiti W attack 1.44 + Costa Rica W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Costa Rica W scores more

43%

level

23%

Haiti W scores more

34%

Costa Rica W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Costa Rica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

38'

46'

59'

62'

C. Venegas← M. Montero

63'

C. Venegas

69'

M. Dumornay

Costa

Haiti

23

3

21

20

2

14

6

⚽2

Dumornay

22

⚽

Borgella

10

⚽

9

7

1

6

12

3

20

4

24

10

21

22

⚽

Corrales

17

▼

Montero

Manager: A. Valverde

62'▲C. Venegas←▼M. Montero

Costa Rica W substitutes

9Venegas13Arias26Campos5Campo16Alvarado7Herrera25Angulo2Guillén11Rodríguez23Solera8Cruz15Granados19Salas14Chinchilla

Manager: N. Delépine

Friendlies Women: Costa Rica W 2–4 Haiti W

Haiti W beat Costa Rica W 4-2 in Friendlies Women on June 28, 2022.

Goals: R. Borgella (7'), N. Mondésir (38'), M. Dumornay (46', 69'), H. Corrales (59'), C. Venegas (63').

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo FEDEFUTBOL Plycem in Alajuela.

Costa Rica W vs Haiti W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Costa Rica W 2–4 Haiti W