Costa Rica W 2–5 Brazil W: Result & Stats

Costa Rica W

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Brazil W

P. Chinchilla 67', 52'

Jheniffer 90', 14'

Adriana Leal 81' (pen)

Taina Maranhao 28'

Kerolin 11'

2/28/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International WomenEstadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Costa Rica W30%

×Draw22%

Brazil W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Costa Rica WExpected goals in this matchBrazil W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.89

Costa Rica W

1.44

Brazil W

1.89

Brazil W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

1.58

creates per match

2.00

1.77

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Costa Rica W

1.58

Brazil W

2.00

allows per match

Costa Rica W

1.77

Brazil W

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Costa Rica W+0.00on par

Brazil W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa Rica W ↓

Brazil W →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Costa Rica W or draw

52%

Costa Rica W or Brazil W

78%

Draw or Brazil W

70%

Winning margin

Costa Rica W wins by 2+

13%

Brazil W wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Costa Rica W 1+ goals

76%

Costa Rica W 2+ goals

42%

Costa Rica W 3+ goals

18%

Brazil W 1+ goals

85%

Brazil W 2+ goals

56%

Brazil W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Costa Rica W (draw refunded)

38%

Brazil W (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Costa Rica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

Brazil W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Costa Rica W attack 1.58 + Brazil W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Brazil W attack 2.00 + Costa Rica W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Costa Rica W scores more

30%

level

22%

Brazil W scores more

48%

Brazil W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brazil W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Kerolin↳ Duda Sampaio

14'

Jheniffer↳ Taina Maranhao

28'

Taina Maranhao↳ Bia Zaneratto

46'

E. Flores← K. Alvarado

46'

A. M. Gilbertson Rojas← M. Salas

52'

P. Chinchilla↳ M. Herrera Monge

62'

Bruninha← Fe Palermo

63'

Adriana Leal← Bia Zaneratto

63'

Ana Vitoria← Jaqueline Ribeiro

64'

V. del Campo← M. Coto

67'

P. Chinchilla

78'

Gabi Zanotti← Kerolin

78'

Luany←

78'

Brena Carolina← Duda Sampaio

81'

Adriana LealPenalty

90'

Jheniffer↳ Adriana Leal

Costa

Brazil

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽A

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Camila Lindsay

46'▲E. Flores←▼K. Alvarado

46'▲A. M. Gilbertson Rojas←▼M. Salas

64'▲V. del Campo←▼M. Coto

Costa Rica W substitutes

18Perez1Valverde17Briceno8Arce15Blanco5Campo13Valenciano6Flores10Villalobos11Rodriguez19Rojas22Ovares12Gonzalez

Manager: Jose Ribas Elias Arthur

62'▲Bruninha←▼Fe Palermo

63'▲Adriana Leal←▼Bia Zaneratto

63'▲Ana Vitoria←▼Jaqueline Ribeiro

78'▲Gabi Zanotti←▼Kerolin

78'▲Luany←▼—

78'▲Brena Carolina←▼Duda Sampaio

Brazil W substitutes

12Lele24Claudia2Bruninha3Tarciane4Leal5Bertolucci6Yasmim9Zanotti18Leal19Geyse21Vitoria22Luany23Carolina25Niehues26Gomes

Friendlies Women: Costa Rica W 2–5 Brazil W

Brazil W beat Costa Rica W 5-2 in Friendlies Women on February 28, 2026.

Goals: Kerolin (11'), Jheniffer (14', 90'), Taina Maranhao (28'), P. Chinchilla (52', 67'), Adriana Leal (81' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto in Alajuela.

Costa Rica W vs Brazil W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Costa Rica W 2–5 Brazil W