Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Costa Rica vs Serbia — World Cup 2026

Costa Rica
Costa Rica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Serbia
Serbia
A. Kolarov 56'
6/17/2018World CupWorld Cup · Group Stage - 1Solidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Costa Rica30%
×Draw26%
Serbia45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Costa Rica
1.17
Serbia
1.50

Serbia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Costa Rica
0.67
Serbia
1.33

allows per match

Costa Rica
1.67
Serbia
1.67

finishing

Costa Rica+0.00on par
Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa Rica ↓

Serbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Costa Rica or draw
55%
Costa Rica or Serbia
74%
Draw or Serbia
70%

Winning margin

Costa Rica wins by 2+
12%
Serbia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Costa Rica 1+ goals
69%
Costa Rica 2+ goals
33%
Costa Rica 3+ goals
11%
Serbia 1+ goals
78%
Serbia 2+ goals
44%
Serbia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Costa Rica (draw refunded)
40%
Serbia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa Rica at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa Rica attack 0.67 + Serbia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Serbia attack 1.33 + Costa Rica defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Costa Rica scores more
30%
level
26%
Serbia scores more
45%

Serbia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Serbia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
N. MilenkovićSerbiaSerbia · D
7.7

Match Events

22'
Francisco Calvo
56'
David Guzmán
56'
A. Kolarov
59'
Branislav Ivanović
60'
C. Bolaños← J. Venegas
67'
J. Campbell← M. Ureña
70'
F. Kostić← A. Ljajić
73'
D. Colindres← D. Guzmán
83'
A. Rukavina← D. Tadić
90'
Aleksandar Prijović
90'
A. Prijović← A. Mitrović

Possession

52%Costa

Shots

10Costa

Pass accuracy

51%Costa

Statistics

CostaSerbia
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots10
5Corners4
18Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots10
3On Target3
3Off Target6
4Blocked1
5Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
449Total Passes418
359Accurate Passes326
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

World Cup: Costa Rica 0–1 Serbia

Serbia beat Costa Rica 1-0 in World Cup on June 17, 2018.

Goals: A. Kolarov (56').

Costa Rica controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Solidarnost Arena in Samara.