Costa Rica 2–5 Santo André: Result & Stats

Costa Rica

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Santo André

Pedro Neto 85'

Roberto Baggio 52' (pen)

Dioran 90+6'

João Marcos 42'

Júlio Cesar 33', 29'

Lucas Oliveira 24'

6/2/2024

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Laerte Paes Coelho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Costa Rica 39%

×Draw28%

Santo André33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Costa Rica Expected goals in this matchSanto André

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Costa Rica

1.22

Santo André

1.11

Costa Rica creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

1.13

creates per match

0.97

1.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Costa Rica

1.13

Santo André

0.97

allows per match

Costa Rica

1.25

Santo André

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Costa Rica +0.00on par

Santo André+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa Rica ↓

Santo André →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Costa Rica or draw

67%

Costa Rica or Santo André

72%

Draw or Santo André

61%

Winning margin

Costa Rica wins by 2+

17%

Santo André wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Costa Rica 1+ goals

70%

Costa Rica 2+ goals

34%

Costa Rica 3+ goals

12%

Santo André 1+ goals

67%

Santo André 2+ goals

30%

Santo André 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Costa Rica (draw refunded)

54%

Santo André (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa Rica at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Santo André away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa Rica attack 1.13 + Santo André defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Santo André attack 0.97 + Costa Rica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Costa Rica scores more

39%

level

28%

Santo André scores more

33%

Costa Rica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Costa Rica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

29'

33'

42'

46'

Jô← Léo Júnior

46'

Pedro Neto← Felipe Micael

46'

Nelsinho← Jesus César

52'

Roberto BaggioPenalty

55'

Dioran← Alexiel

59'

Kawan← Júlio Cesar

65'

Eduardo← Joelson

65'

Mateus Canhota← Guilherme Carrijo

81'

Ighor Gabryel← João Marcos

81'

Ruan← Enzo

85'

Pedro Neto

90+6'

Dioran

Costa

Santo

⚽

⚽2

▼

Cesar

▼

César

▼

Enzo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alan George

46'▲Jô←▼Léo Júnior

46'▲Pedro Neto←▼Felipe Micael

65'▲Eduardo←▼Joelson

65'▲Mateus Canhota←▼Guilherme Carrijo

Costa Rica substitutes

JôNetoEduardoCanhotaJordanCarvalhoAmorimQueirozCristianPortoPepetoMarcinho

Manager: Leston Júnior

46'▲Nelsinho←▼Jesus César

55'▲Dioran←▼Alexiel

59'▲Kawan←▼Júlio Cesar

81'▲Ighor Gabryel←▼João Marcos

81'▲Ruan←▼Enzo

Santo André substitutes

NelsinhoDioranKawanGabryelRuanBaggioSantanaAlessandroHiago

Match Recap: Costa Rica vs Santo André

Santo André beat Costa Rica 5-2 in Serie D on June 2, 2024.

Goals: Lucas Oliveira (24'), Júlio Cesar (29', 33'), João Marcos (42'), Roberto Baggio (52' pen), Pedro Neto (85'), Dioran (90+6').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Laerte Paes Coelho in Costa Rica, Mato Grosso do Sul.

Costa Rica vs Santo André — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Costa Rica vs Santo André