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Costa Rica vs El Salvador — Friendlies 2026

Costa Rica
Costa Rica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Salvador
El Salvador
2/3/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Costa Rica51%
×Draw28%
El Salvador21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Costa Rica
1.39
El Salvador
0.79

Costa Rica creates 76% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

creates per match

Costa Rica
0.83
El Salvador
0.59

allows per match

Costa Rica
1.00
El Salvador
1.94

finishing

Costa Rica+0.00on par
El Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa Rica ↓

El Salvador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Costa Rica or draw
79%
Costa Rica or El Salvador
72%
Draw or El Salvador
49%

Winning margin

Costa Rica wins by 2+
25%
El Salvador wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Costa Rica 1+ goals
75%
Costa Rica 2+ goals
40%
Costa Rica 3+ goals
16%
El Salvador 1+ goals
55%
El Salvador 2+ goals
19%
El Salvador 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Costa Rica (draw refunded)
71%
El Salvador (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa Rica at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

El Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa Rica attack 0.83 + El Salvador defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

El Salvador attack 0.59 + Costa Rica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Costa Rica scores more
51%
level
28%
El Salvador scores more
21%

Costa Rica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Costa Rica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Costa Rica 2–0 El Salvador

Costa Rica beat El Salvador 2-0 in Friendlies on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica in San José.