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Costa Rica U20 W vs Canada U20 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Costa Rica U20 W
Costa Rica U20 W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Canada U20 W
Canada U20 W
L. Tarasco 68'
S. Bailey 50', 48' (pen)
4/13/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Costa Rica U20 W8%
×Draw15%
Canada U20 W77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Costa Rica U20 W
0.67
Canada U20 W
2.50

Canada U20 W creates 273% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Costa Rica U20 W
0.67
Canada U20 W
2.00

allows per match

Costa Rica U20 W
3.00
Canada U20 W
0.67

finishing

Costa Rica U20 W+0.00on par
Canada U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa Rica U20 W ↓

Canada U20 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Costa Rica U20 W or draw
23%
Costa Rica U20 W or Canada U20 W
85%
Draw or Canada U20 W
92%

Winning margin

Costa Rica U20 W wins by 2+
2%
Canada U20 W wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Costa Rica U20 W 1+ goals
49%
Costa Rica U20 W 2+ goals
15%
Costa Rica U20 W 3+ goals
3%
Canada U20 W 1+ goals
92%
Canada U20 W 2+ goals
71%
Canada U20 W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Costa Rica U20 W (draw refunded)
9%
Canada U20 W (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa Rica U20 W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Canada U20 W away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa Rica U20 W attack 0.67 + Canada U20 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Canada U20 W attack 2.00 + Costa Rica U20 W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Costa Rica U20 W scores more
8%
level
15%
Canada U20 W scores more
77%

Canada U20 W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Canada U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
S. BaileyPenalty
50'
S. Bailey
68'
L. Tarasco
Costa
Canada
P. Aguilar
Manager: P. Aguilar
C. Tye
Manager: C. Tye

Friendlies Women: Costa Rica U20 W 0–3 Canada U20 W

Canada U20 W beat Costa Rica U20 W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on April 13, 2026.

Goals: S. Bailey (48' pen, 50'), L. Tarasco (68').