Costa del Este 2–1 Herrera: Result & Stats

Costa del Este

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Herrera

9/2/2023

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 7Estadio Prof. Javier Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Costa del Este45%

×Draw27%

Herrera28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Costa del EsteExpected goals in this matchHerrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Costa del Este

1.42

Herrera

1.06

Costa del Este creates 34% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 92 away

1.23

creates per match

0.97

1.15

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Costa del Este

1.23

Herrera

0.97

allows per match

Costa del Este

1.15

Herrera

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Costa del Este+0.00on par

Herrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Costa del Este ↓

Herrera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Costa del Este or draw

72%

Costa del Este or Herrera

73%

Draw or Herrera

55%

Winning margin

Costa del Este wins by 2+

22%

Herrera wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Costa del Este 1+ goals

76%

Costa del Este 2+ goals

41%

Costa del Este 3+ goals

17%

Herrera 1+ goals

65%

Herrera 2+ goals

29%

Herrera 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Costa del Este (draw refunded)

62%

Herrera (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Costa del Este at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 114 matches

Herrera away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Costa del Este attack 1.23 + Herrera defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Herrera attack 0.97 + Costa del Este defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Costa del Este scores more

45%

level

27%

Herrera scores more

28%

Costa del Este at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Costa del Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff