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Cosmos vs Tre Fiori — League #404 2026

Cosmos
Cosmos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori
M. Prandelli 86'
8/30/2025League #404League #404 · Round 1Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Cosmos33%
×Draw24%
Tre Fiori43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosmos
1.43
Tre Fiori
1.67

Tre Fiori creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 35 away

creates per match

Cosmos
2.02
Tre Fiori
1.91

allows per match

Cosmos
1.43
Tre Fiori
0.83

finishing

Cosmos+0.00on par
Tre Fiori+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos ↓

Tre Fiori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cosmos or draw
57%
Cosmos or Tre Fiori
76%
Draw or Tre Fiori
67%

Winning margin

Cosmos wins by 2+
15%
Tre Fiori wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Cosmos 1+ goals
76%
Cosmos 2+ goals
42%
Cosmos 3+ goals
17%
Tre Fiori 1+ goals
81%
Tre Fiori 2+ goals
50%
Tre Fiori 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Cosmos (draw refunded)
43%
Tre Fiori (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

Tre Fiori away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos attack 2.02 + Tre Fiori defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tre Fiori attack 1.91 + Cosmos defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cosmos scores more
33%
level
24%
Tre Fiori scores more
43%

Tre Fiori at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tre Fiori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
Daniele Grieco
77'
Luca Ceccaroli
86'
M. Prandelli↳ B. Sami

Possession

36%Cosmos

Shots

3Cosmos

Statistics

CosmosTre
Overview
36%Possession64%
3Total Shots16
1Corners5
16Fouls14
Shots
3Total Shots16
1On Target3
2Off Target13
Passing
36%Possession64%
Discipline
16Fouls14
3Yellow Cards0
2Red Cards0
1Offsides8

League #404: Cosmos 0–1 Tre Fiori

Tre Fiori beat Cosmos 1-0 in League #404 on August 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Prandelli (86').

Tre Fiori controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva in Acquaviva.