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Cosmos vs Cailungo — League #404 2026

Cosmos
Cosmos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cailungo
Cailungo
G. Bufi 57'
L. Hamati 12'
D. Lisi 69'
3/21/2026League #404League #404 · Round 26Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cosmos59%
×Draw21%
Cailungo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosmos
2.13
Cailungo
1.19

Cosmos creates 79% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cosmos
2.02
Cailungo
0.94

allows per match

Cosmos
1.43
Cailungo
2.24

finishing

Cosmos+0.00on par
Cailungo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos ↓

Cailungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Cosmos or draw
79%
Cosmos or Cailungo
79%
Draw or Cailungo
41%

Winning margin

Cosmos wins by 2+
36%
Cailungo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cosmos 1+ goals
88%
Cosmos 2+ goals
63%
Cosmos 3+ goals
35%
Cailungo 1+ goals
70%
Cailungo 2+ goals
33%
Cailungo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cosmos (draw refunded)
74%
Cailungo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.43 · 40 matches

Cailungo away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos attack 2.02 + Cailungo defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.13

Cailungo attack 0.94 + Cosmos defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cosmos scores more
59%
level
21%
Cailungo scores more
21%

Cosmos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cosmos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
L. Hamati
57'
G. Bufi↳ A. Gjoni
66'
M. Iuzzolino
69'
D. Lisi
Cosmos
Cailungo
A. Selva
Manager: A. Selva
R. Sarti
Manager: R. Sarti

Match Recap: Cosmos vs Cailungo

Cosmos beat Cailungo 2-1 in League #404 on March 21, 2026.

Goals: L. Hamati (12'), G. Bufi (57'), D. Lisi (69').

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle in Serravalle.