Cosmos 3–0 Cailungo: Result & Stats | Coppa Titano

Cosmos

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cailungo

K. Zonzini 78'

F. Giovagnoli 72', 10'

9/29/2020

Coppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio di Dogana Ezio Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cosmos47%

×Draw27%

Cailungo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CosmosExpected goals in this matchCailungo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.99

Cosmos

1.43

Cailungo

0.99

Cosmos creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.86

creates per match

0.40

1.57

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cosmos

0.86

Cailungo

0.40

allows per match

Cosmos

1.57

Cailungo

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cosmos+0.00on par

Cailungo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos ↓

Cailungo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cosmos or draw

74%

Cosmos or Cailungo

73%

Draw or Cailungo

53%

Winning margin

Cosmos wins by 2+

23%

Cailungo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cosmos 1+ goals

76%

Cosmos 2+ goals

42%

Cosmos 3+ goals

17%

Cailungo 1+ goals

63%

Cailungo 2+ goals

26%

Cailungo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cosmos (draw refunded)

64%

Cailungo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Cailungo away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos attack 0.86 + Cailungo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cailungo attack 0.40 + Cosmos defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cosmos scores more

47%

level

27%

Cailungo scores more

26%

Cosmos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cosmos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

F. Giovagnoli

59'

M. Cervellini← R. Santini

70'

S. Pari← S. Rossi

72'

F. Giovagnoli

73'

E. Righetti← M. Vitali

78'

K. Zonzini

82'

F. Grassi← N. Zafferani

82'

T. Cavalli← F. Giovagnoli

89'

D. Veronesi← L. Baravelli

90+2'

E. Stacchini← M. Iuzzolino

Cosmos

Cailungo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: C. Protti

59'▲M. Cervellini←▼R. Santini

70'▲S. Pari←▼S. Rossi

82'▲F. Grassi←▼N. Zafferani

82'▲T. Cavalli←▼F. Giovagnoli

Cosmos substitutes

CervelliniPariGrassiCavalliBaschettiZaghiniBatori

Manager: A. Bianchi

73'▲E. Righetti←▼M. Vitali

89'▲D. Veronesi←▼L. Baravelli

90+2'▲E. Stacchini←▼M. Iuzzolino

Cailungo substitutes

RighettiVeronesiStacchiniDialloCarnesecchiFrancioniMatteoni