Cosmos Koblenz 3–1 Sv Morlautern: Result & Stats

Cosmos Koblenz

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sv Morlautern

7/30/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cosmos Koblenz54%

×Draw21%

Sv Morlautern25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cosmos KoblenzExpected goals in this matchSv Morlautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.36

Cosmos Koblenz

2.07

Sv Morlautern

1.36

Cosmos Koblenz creates 52% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 46 away

1.86

creates per match

1.11

1.61

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Cosmos Koblenz

1.86

Sv Morlautern

1.11

allows per match

Cosmos Koblenz

1.61

Sv Morlautern

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cosmos Koblenz+0.00on par

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos Koblenz ↓

Sv Morlautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Cosmos Koblenz or draw

75%

Cosmos Koblenz or Sv Morlautern

79%

Draw or Sv Morlautern

46%

Winning margin

Cosmos Koblenz wins by 2+

32%

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cosmos Koblenz 1+ goals

87%

Cosmos Koblenz 2+ goals

61%

Cosmos Koblenz 3+ goals

34%

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals

74%

Sv Morlautern 2+ goals

39%

Sv Morlautern 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cosmos Koblenz (draw refunded)

68%

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos Koblenz at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

Sv Morlautern away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos Koblenz attack 1.86 + Sv Morlautern defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.07

Sv Morlautern attack 1.11 + Cosmos Koblenz defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cosmos Koblenz scores more

54%

level

21%

Sv Morlautern scores more

25%

Cosmos Koblenz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cosmos Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff