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Cosmos Koblenz vs Quierschied — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Cosmos Koblenz
Cosmos Koblenz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Quierschied
Quierschied
3/10/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 26Sportanlage Oberwerth Nebenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cosmos Koblenz59%
×Draw20%
Quierschied20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosmos Koblenz
2.22
Quierschied
1.23

Cosmos Koblenz creates 80% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cosmos Koblenz
1.86
Quierschied
0.84

allows per match

Cosmos Koblenz
1.61
Quierschied
2.58

finishing

Cosmos Koblenz+0.00on par
Quierschied+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos Koblenz ↓

Quierschied →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Cosmos Koblenz or draw
80%
Cosmos Koblenz or Quierschied
80%
Draw or Quierschied
41%

Winning margin

Cosmos Koblenz wins by 2+
37%
Quierschied wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cosmos Koblenz 1+ goals
89%
Cosmos Koblenz 2+ goals
65%
Cosmos Koblenz 3+ goals
38%
Quierschied 1+ goals
71%
Quierschied 2+ goals
35%
Quierschied 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cosmos Koblenz (draw refunded)
74%
Quierschied (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos Koblenz at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

Quierschied away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos Koblenz attack 1.86 + Quierschied defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.22

Quierschied attack 0.84 + Cosmos Koblenz defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cosmos Koblenz scores more
59%
level
20%
Quierschied scores more
20%

Cosmos Koblenz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cosmos Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Cosmos Koblenz 2–2 Quierschied

Cosmos Koblenz and Quierschied drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Oberwerth Nebenplatz in Koblenz.