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Cosmos Koblenz vs FV Engers 07 — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Cosmos Koblenz
Cosmos Koblenz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
E. Rossler 10'
8/7/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 3Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cosmos Koblenz39%
×Draw22%
FV Engers 0739%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosmos Koblenz
1.79
FV Engers 07
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 78 away

creates per match

Cosmos Koblenz
1.86
FV Engers 07
1.96

allows per match

Cosmos Koblenz
1.61
FV Engers 07
1.71

finishing

Cosmos Koblenz+0.00on par
FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos Koblenz ↓

FV Engers 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Cosmos Koblenz or draw
61%
Cosmos Koblenz or FV Engers 07
78%
Draw or FV Engers 07
61%

Winning margin

Cosmos Koblenz wins by 2+
20%
FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cosmos Koblenz 1+ goals
83%
Cosmos Koblenz 2+ goals
53%
Cosmos Koblenz 3+ goals
26%
FV Engers 07 1+ goals
83%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
53%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Cosmos Koblenz (draw refunded)
50%
FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos Koblenz at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos Koblenz attack 1.86 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + Cosmos Koblenz defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cosmos Koblenz scores more
39%
level
22%
FV Engers 07 scores more
39%

Cosmos Koblenz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cosmos Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
E. Rossler
74'
D. Keric

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Cosmos Koblenz 0–1 FV Engers 07

FV Engers 07 beat Cosmos Koblenz 1-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 7, 2023.

Goals: E. Rossler (10').

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.