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Cosmos Koblenz vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Cosmos Koblenz
Cosmos Koblenz
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
11/25/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 23Sportanlage Oberwerth Nebenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cosmos Koblenz51%
×Draw22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosmos Koblenz
2.00
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.42

Cosmos Koblenz creates 41% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 43 away

creates per match

Cosmos Koblenz
1.86
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.23

allows per match

Cosmos Koblenz
1.61
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.14

finishing

Cosmos Koblenz+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmos Koblenz ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Cosmos Koblenz or draw
73%
Cosmos Koblenz or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
78%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
49%

Winning margin

Cosmos Koblenz wins by 2+
29%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cosmos Koblenz 1+ goals
86%
Cosmos Koblenz 2+ goals
59%
Cosmos Koblenz 3+ goals
32%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
76%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
41%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cosmos Koblenz (draw refunded)
65%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmos Koblenz at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmos Koblenz attack 1.86 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.00

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Cosmos Koblenz defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cosmos Koblenz scores more
51%
level
22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
27%

Cosmos Koblenz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cosmos Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Cosmos Koblenz 0–3 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Alemannia Waldalgesheim beat Cosmos Koblenz 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Oberwerth Nebenplatz in Koblenz.