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Cosmopolitano Sports U20 vs Independente SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Cosmopolitano Sports U20
Cosmopolitano Sports U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independente SP U20
Independente SP U20
Unknown 74', 45+5'
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Thelmo de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cosmopolitano Sports U2054%
×Draw26%
Independente SP U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosmopolitano Sports U20
1.50
Independente SP U20
0.80

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cosmopolitano Sports U20
0.80
Independente SP U20
1.00

allows per match

Cosmopolitano Sports U20
0.60
Independente SP U20
2.20

finishing

Cosmopolitano Sports U20+0.00on par
Independente SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 ↓

Independente SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 or draw
80%
Cosmopolitano Sports U20 or Independente SP U20
74%
Draw or Independente SP U20
46%

Winning margin

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 wins by 2+
28%
Independente SP U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 1+ goals
78%
Cosmopolitano Sports U20 2+ goals
44%
Cosmopolitano Sports U20 3+ goals
19%
Independente SP U20 1+ goals
55%
Independente SP U20 2+ goals
19%
Independente SP U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Independente SP U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Independente SP U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 attack 0.80 + Independente SP U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Independente SP U20 attack 1.00 + Cosmopolitano Sports U20 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 scores more
54%
level
26%
Independente SP U20 scores more
20%

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cosmopolitano Sports U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'
74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Cosmopolitano Sports U20 2–0 Independente SP U20

Cosmopolitano Sports U20 beat Independente SP U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: ? (45+5', 74').

The match was played at Estádio Thelmo de Almeida in Cosmópolis, São Paulo.