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Cosenza vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Cosenza
Cosenza
FT
0 – 3
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
9/1/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 2San Vito-Gigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cosenza39%
×Draw29%
Hellas Verona32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosenza
1.20
Hellas Verona
1.06

Cosenza creates 13% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 18 away

creates per match

Cosenza
1.06
Hellas Verona
1.06

allows per match

Cosenza
1.07
Hellas Verona
1.33

finishing

Cosenza+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cosenza or draw
68%
Cosenza or Hellas Verona
71%
Draw or Hellas Verona
61%

Winning margin

Cosenza wins by 2+
17%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cosenza 1+ goals
70%
Cosenza 2+ goals
34%
Cosenza 3+ goals
12%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
65%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
29%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cosenza (draw refunded)
55%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza attack 1.06 + Hellas Verona defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Hellas Verona attack 1.06 + Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cosenza scores more
39%
level
29%
Hellas Verona scores more
32%

Cosenza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cosenza vs Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona beat Cosenza 3-0 in Serie B on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at San Vito-Gigi Marulla in Cosenza.