Cosenza U19 2–1 Viterbese Castrense U19

Cosenza U19

FT

2 – 1

Viterbese Castrense U19

11/12/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 9Stadio Romolo di Magro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cosenza U1950%

×Draw24%

Viterbese Castrense U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cosenza U19Expected goals in this matchViterbese Castrense U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.14

Cosenza U19

1.68

Viterbese Castrense U19

1.14

Cosenza U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

1.36

creates per match

0.80

1.47

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cosenza U19

1.36

Viterbese Castrense U19

0.80

allows per match

Cosenza U19

1.47

Viterbese Castrense U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cosenza U19+0.00on par

Viterbese Castrense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza U19 ↓

Viterbese Castrense U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cosenza U19 or draw

74%

Cosenza U19 or Viterbese Castrense U19

76%

Draw or Viterbese Castrense U19

50%

Winning margin

Cosenza U19 wins by 2+

27%

Viterbese Castrense U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cosenza U19 1+ goals

81%

Cosenza U19 2+ goals

50%

Cosenza U19 3+ goals

24%

Viterbese Castrense U19 1+ goals

68%

Viterbese Castrense U19 2+ goals

32%

Viterbese Castrense U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cosenza U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Viterbese Castrense U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 83 matches

Viterbese Castrense U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza U19 attack 1.36 + Viterbese Castrense U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Viterbese Castrense U19 attack 0.80 + Cosenza U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cosenza U19 scores more

50%

level

24%

Viterbese Castrense U19 scores more

26%

Cosenza U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cosenza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff