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Cosenza U19 vs Spezia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cosenza U19
Cosenza U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia U19
Spezia U19
11/22/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Cosenza U1939%
×Draw25%
Spezia U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cosenza U19
1.48
Spezia U19
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

creates per match

Cosenza U19
1.36
Spezia U19
1.37

allows per match

Cosenza U19
1.47
Spezia U19
1.59

finishing

Cosenza U19+0.00on par
Spezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza U19 ↓

Spezia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cosenza U19 or draw
64%
Cosenza U19 or Spezia U19
75%
Draw or Spezia U19
61%

Winning margin

Cosenza U19 wins by 2+
19%
Spezia U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cosenza U19 1+ goals
77%
Cosenza U19 2+ goals
43%
Cosenza U19 3+ goals
19%
Spezia U19 1+ goals
76%
Spezia U19 2+ goals
41%
Spezia U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cosenza U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Spezia U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 83 matches

Spezia U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza U19 attack 1.36 + Spezia U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spezia U19 attack 1.37 + Cosenza U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cosenza U19 scores more
39%
level
25%
Spezia U19 scores more
36%

Cosenza U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cosenza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cosenza U19 vs Spezia U19

Cosenza U19 beat Spezia U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 22, 2025.