Cosenza U19 2–1 Perugia U19: Result & Stats

Cosenza U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Perugia U19

2/15/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 19Centro Sportivo Marca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Cosenza U1944%

×Draw24%

Perugia U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cosenza U19Expected goals in this matchPerugia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.32

Cosenza U19

1.62

Perugia U19

1.32

Cosenza U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 73 away

1.36

creates per match

1.18

1.47

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Cosenza U19

1.36

Perugia U19

1.18

allows per match

Cosenza U19

1.47

Perugia U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cosenza U19+0.00on par

Perugia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza U19 ↓

Perugia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cosenza U19 or draw

69%

Cosenza U19 or Perugia U19

76%

Draw or Perugia U19

56%

Winning margin

Cosenza U19 wins by 2+

23%

Perugia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cosenza U19 1+ goals

80%

Cosenza U19 2+ goals

48%

Cosenza U19 3+ goals

22%

Perugia U19 1+ goals

73%

Perugia U19 2+ goals

38%

Perugia U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cosenza U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Perugia U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 83 matches

Perugia U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza U19 attack 1.36 + Perugia U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

Perugia U19 attack 1.18 + Cosenza U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cosenza U19 scores more

44%

level

24%

Perugia U19 scores more

31%

Cosenza U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cosenza U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff