Cosenza U19 3–4 Cesena U19: Result & Stats

Cosenza U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Cesena U19

4/3/2022

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 23Stadio Romolo di Magro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cosenza U1927%

×Draw22%

Cesena U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cosenza U19Expected goals in this matchCesena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.02

Cosenza U19

1.40

Cesena U19

2.02

Cesena U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 28 away

1.36

creates per match

2.57

1.47

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cosenza U19

1.36

Cesena U19

2.57

allows per match

Cosenza U19

1.47

Cesena U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cosenza U19+0.00on par

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cosenza U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Cosenza U19 or draw

48%

Cosenza U19 or Cesena U19

78%

Draw or Cesena U19

73%

Winning margin

Cosenza U19 wins by 2+

12%

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Cosenza U19 1+ goals

75%

Cosenza U19 2+ goals

41%

Cosenza U19 3+ goals

17%

Cesena U19 1+ goals

87%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

60%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Cosenza U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cosenza U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 83 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cosenza U19 attack 1.36 + Cesena U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cesena U19 attack 2.57 + Cosenza U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cosenza U19 scores more

27%

level

22%

Cesena U19 scores more

52%

Cesena U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff