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Corvinul Hunedoara vs Unirea Dej — Liga II 2018

Corvinul Hunedoara
Corvinul Hunedoara
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
11/4/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 12Stadionul Michael Klein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Corvinul Hunedoara52%
×Draw27%
Unirea Dej21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corvinul Hunedoara
1.40
Unirea Dej
0.77

Corvinul Hunedoara creates 82% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

creates per match

Corvinul Hunedoara
1.66
Unirea Dej
0.89

allows per match

Corvinul Hunedoara
0.64
Unirea Dej
1.13

finishing

Corvinul Hunedoara+0.00on par
Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corvinul Hunedoara ↓

Unirea Dej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Corvinul Hunedoara or draw
79%
Corvinul Hunedoara or Unirea Dej
73%
Draw or Unirea Dej
48%

Winning margin

Corvinul Hunedoara wins by 2+
26%
Unirea Dej wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Corvinul Hunedoara 1+ goals
75%
Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals
41%
Corvinul Hunedoara 3+ goals
17%
Unirea Dej 1+ goals
54%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
18%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Corvinul Hunedoara (draw refunded)
72%
Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corvinul Hunedoara at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corvinul Hunedoara attack 1.66 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + Corvinul Hunedoara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Corvinul Hunedoara scores more
52%
level
27%
Unirea Dej scores more
21%

Corvinul Hunedoara at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Corvinul Hunedoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corvinul Hunedoara vs Unirea Dej

Corvinul Hunedoara beat Unirea Dej 4-0 in Liga II on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Michael Klein in Hunedoara.