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Corvinul Hunedoara vs Focşani — Liga II 2018

Corvinul Hunedoara
Corvinul Hunedoara
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Focşani
Focşani
11/9/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 13Complexul Sportiv Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Corvinul Hunedoara61%
×Draw26%
Focşani13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corvinul Hunedoara
1.50
Focşani
0.53

Corvinul Hunedoara creates 183% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 12 away

creates per match

Corvinul Hunedoara
1.66
Focşani
0.42

allows per match

Corvinul Hunedoara
0.64
Focşani
1.33

finishing

Corvinul Hunedoara+0.00on par
Focşani+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corvinul Hunedoara ↓

Focşani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Corvinul Hunedoara or draw
87%
Corvinul Hunedoara or Focşani
74%
Draw or Focşani
39%

Winning margin

Corvinul Hunedoara wins by 2+
32%
Focşani wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Corvinul Hunedoara 1+ goals
78%
Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals
44%
Corvinul Hunedoara 3+ goals
19%
Focşani 1+ goals
41%
Focşani 2+ goals
10%
Focşani 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Corvinul Hunedoara (draw refunded)
83%
Focşani (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corvinul Hunedoara at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Focşani away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corvinul Hunedoara attack 1.66 + Focşani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Focşani attack 0.42 + Corvinul Hunedoara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Corvinul Hunedoara scores more
61%
level
26%
Focşani scores more
13%

Corvinul Hunedoara at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Corvinul Hunedoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corvinul Hunedoara vs Focşani

Corvinul Hunedoara beat Focşani 3-2 in Liga II on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara in Hunedoara.